Saturday, February 10, 2007
"Up next on Fox 5 News at 10, learn why parents of young girls are upset about a plan to protect against cancer."
Recently, Shana's friend JL posted this entry. The quote above was an actual NYC news teaser last night on the same topic: Gardasil. Like JL, I also was recently ranting about the prospect of Gardasil becoming a compulsory vaccination.
Gardasil protects against four strains of HPV (Human papillomavirus), of which there are actually more than 100 strains. Common warts are caused by some HPV strains, and about a dozen strains cause various types of cancers. Gardasil protects against two strains that cause about 70% of cervical cancer. The other two Gardasil HPV strains cause 90% of genital warts. All four strains are transmitted through sexual contact. I think it is interesting that Merck's advertising focuses only on the cervical cancer aspect: "O-N-E L-E-S-S. I wan-na be one less, one less."
(If only the makers of Valtrex, Viagra, or Cialis were as discreet or ambiguous in their advertising ...)
The vaccination requires 3 doses, at $120 each. Merck stands to make a pretty penny, and it seems they have already bet the farm on it. Prior to FDA approval, Merck expanded a facility to accommodate Gardasil production, which is now operating 24-hours a day. Perhaps a risky bet, but the jackpot is huge: an estimated $2 billion dollar domestic market, and the estimate for the annual worldwide market by 2010 is between $4 billion and $7 billion. Of course, markets of this size are much more likely, and will materialize much sooner, if states and public health agencies mandate the vaccination.
Merck is working to make that happen by bankrolling groups like "Women in Government" who in turn encourage politi¢ian$ to make the vaccination mandatory. It has already brought results in Texas, where the Governor has mandated through executive order the vaccination of girls entering 8th grade by 2008. I am glad to see that he made the provision for parents to opt-out on religions or philosophical reasons. Other states are also considering legislation, probably with some help and ¢ontribution$ from "Women in Government." Merck is also (unsurprisingly) advocating "gender-neutral immunization," that is, immunizing both males and females. While I see that would immunize the male disease vector, I can't ignore the fact that it would also effectively DOUBLE the sales opportunity.
An estimated 290,000 women die each year from cervical cancer. But that statistic, while tragic, is deceiving - it's a worldwide number. Within the US, medical practice for the past 50 years has been to recommend and perform routine cervical cytology screenings (Pap tests). In that 50 years, the number of cervical cancer deaths has been reduced by 70%, currently about 3000-4000 cases annually. I respectfully acknowledge that statistic is also tragic. But why the push for compulsory vaccination withIN the United States, if 98% of the opportunity and benefit are OUTside of the US? I guess the statistical opportunity does not necessarily coincide with Merck's financial opportunity.
While a compulsory vaccination may help to further reduce the cervical cancer deaths in the US, by bringing it to those who neglect or cannot afford regular medical care, so too would improving the standard of care for those targeted groups.
A few years back, US public health agencies were sold on the Varicella vaccine. (That's Chickenpox for the rest of us). I was recently discussiong with the school nurse the rationale for vaccinating against a disease, that, in my experience, is a minor childhood disease. Apparently, prior to the vaccine, about 100 people died of Chickenpox annually. In an 18-month period in 2003-2004, the mortality had been reduced to eight. Something seems to be working with the Varicella immunization.
Unfortunately not everything is working. The lifetime immunity I acquired from my minor experience with Chickenpox at about four years old, has not been repeated with the vaccination. Children, despite immunization at one, have been catching the live virus when it comes around. Tests have indicated that within 5 years of immunization, reinfection may be as high as 8% and loss of antibodies may be as high as 30%. So now there is a Varicella booster administered a few years after the initial immunization. Did the pharmaceutical company fail to adequately test the vaccine and its effectiveness prior to marketing? Were we too easily sold when someone said the magic "vaccine" word? Does a vaccine always need to be compulsory for it to be effective? Will the drug makers provide the boosters for no additional charge? Or does this merely turn 40 million vaccinated individuals into repeat customers? I was tempted recently to arrange a pox party during an outbreak at school.
I don't think giving my child a shot against an STD will cause promiscuity - but I don't think we ought to wholly embrace and swiftly adopt everything labeled "vaccine" that drug purveyors provide us with. For some reason I am not convinced that my health and well-being is always the primary motivator of pharmaceutical companies. On the other hand, perhaps it is time to buy Merck stock.
For the love of money is the root of all evil ...
posted by Mark # 12:10 PM
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